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January 29, 2009 |
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Below we highlight our trading range charts of ten major commodities. For each commodity, the green shading represents between two standard deviations above and below it's 50-day moving average. Moves above or below the trading range are considered overbought or oversold.
There has been some big divergence between commodity prices in recent weeks. As shown, oil and natural gas remain at or near oversold levels, while metals and some agriculture commodities are closer to overbought levels. Natural gas is the most oversold commodity by far, and it has been trickling lower along the bottom of its trading range for months now. Odds are that it will at least make a move to the top of its downtrend channel sometime soon. Oil has been trying to break out of its downtrend recently, as it made a "higher low" on its most recent downturn.
Gold, silver, and platinum are all trading in short-term uptrends, although they look to have stalled out at the top of their trading ranges for the time being. Copper, corn, and wheat are trading in the middle of their trading ranges, while orange juice continues trending downward. And coffee has really made a nice move since bottoming late last year, and it is now trading in overbought territory.
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