Another 'Make It or Break It' Hurdle for Gold

April 10, 2009 | By: Hard Assets Investor

By Brad Zigler

Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 8.1%

There's a continuous – no, let me rephrase that – there's an unending battle over the merits of technical analysis among traders. Those who forecast price trends using market fundamentals often think chartists are using the equivalent of chicken entrails to predict a commodity's future.

I'm not going to step into the line of fire in this battle.

Suffice it to say that a market in which fundamentals are – how shall I put it? – screwy, technical analysis may provide the only reliable road map.

Take gold, for example. There are lots of reasons the price of the metal "should" be higher if one looks solely at the fundamentals. But there are forces holding the metal's price in check.

Readers of this column know at least one chart is usually published with each day's offering (today will be no different). Many of those charts, however, track fundamental elements of supply and demand. We figure there are benefits and drawbacks to both styles of analysis. For those times when fundamentals are murky, you must refrain from making market moves or try to glean insight from the charts. Obviously, some traders have to be in the market. Market makers, for instance.

Gold's chart indicates that some serious technical damage has been inflicted in recent days. Just this week, we mentioned increased odds that the metal's 100-day moving average would be tested (see "Gold's Price Decline Brings Out Buyers"). That test is nigh, but the support previously provided at the nearby contract's March low of $888 has now turned to overhead resistance.

COMEX Nearby Gold

Gold bears have the technical edge over the near term. They have the January low of $808 in sight, but need a spot close today under $874 to really grease the skids. April COMEX gold has weakened today, but has so far recovered from a dip to the $874 level.

Now, on the fundamental side are the clues offered by the London forward market. Three-month leases are down to 10 basis points (0.10%), brought low, however, more by an easing in LIBOR than in a nudging up of the metal's forward rate. Still, the implication to be drawn is that there's plenty of gold liquidity among commercial dealers, at least in the critical three-month lease segment.

For gold bulls, a close above $919 in the spot market is needed to marshal strength for an assault on the $956 resistance bump.

Traders will be closely watching key outside markets, i.e., U.S. dollar cross rates, crude oil prices and equities for further hints about gold's near-term prospects.

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